Several rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible in parts of Alabama from this afternoon afternoon through early Thursday morning, according to forecasters.
The strongest storms could have winds capable of knocking down trees and power lines and hail. The storms expected on Wednesday into Thursday could also generate a tornado.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in its early afternoon update has added a Level 1 out of 5 severe weather risk for north Alabama today. A Level 1 risk means that isolated severe storms will be possible.
Here’s today’s updated outlook for Alabama:
A Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather is now in place for the northern third of Alabama.SPC
The SPC issued an update this afternoon to say it was watching an area that included northeast Alabama for potential storm development but didn’t anticipate issuing a watch:
However, the National Weather Service in Huntsville had a slightly different take on today’s outlook and thought (at least as of noon Monday) that chances for development of storms in north Alabama was trending downward following a round of rain and storms earlier this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY
More isolated severe storms will be possible across a large part of Alabama on Tuesday, and the SPC has another Level 1 out of 5 risk in the forecast.
Here is the severe weather outlook for Tuesday:
The areas in dark green could have to deal with isolated severe storms on Tuesday, mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.SPC
The National Weather Service in Huntsville said the timing is still subject to change, but forecasters were betting on storms developing in west Alabama on Tuesday afternoon (as early as 1 p.m.) and pushing south and east through the evening hours.
Here’s the timing (remember this is subject to change) for storms in north Alabama on Tuesday:
Storms could begin to affect west Alabama as early as 1 p.m. on Tuesday and then shift eastward through the evening.NWS
Here’s the outlook for central Alabama from the weather service office in Birmingham, which has storms potentially getting started a bit sooner:
Storms could affect parts of central Alabama as early as noon on Tuesday.NWS
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
The potential for storms could ramp up a bit from late Wednesday into early Thursday, and the SPC has added a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather for all of north Alabama and the northern part of central Alabama.
Here’s the outlook for Wednesday (mainly Wednesday night into Thursday morning):
Storms could affect Alabama late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The areas in yellow will have a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk. The areas in dark green will have a Level 1 risk.SPC
A Level 2 out of 5 (or slight) risk means that scattered severe storms will be possible. Again the SPC thinks the greatest threat will be from damaging winds and hail.
However, the weather service in Huntsville also included the possibility of a tornado in the mix with Wednesday’s storms.
Forecasters think a large cluster of storms, or mesoscale convective system (MCS), will be ongoing in Arkansas and Missouri on Wednesday afternoon and will push eastward, potentially reaching Alabama late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
The weather service has a bit more confidence in the forecast for Wednesday’s storms, however forecasters noted that the timing could change as the event gets closer.
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting no severe weather threat for Alabama from Thursday through the weekend, and the weather service said cooler temperatures are to be expected.